Andalusia: CHOICE regional national mark?
He collapsed the PSOE, He grew right and institutionally stormed the far right of Vox. The result has caused a range of feelings: disappointment, while pessimism sparked anger and important mobilizations. They opened questions: Will the outlook for Spain? What can you do to avoid it?
Disenchantment with the PSOE and the fact that ational We can not become an alternative but a bad copy of the old; paves the way to the right-PP expressed by Citizens and Vox. Where they are hovering head, as in Brazil, in Europe and now in Spain, generate a popular reaction It is demonstrating that there is strength to face. The problem is not people but inconsequential policy leaders.
It is not an irreversible phenomenon. to block, we must defeat them on the street and build a new comprehensive alternative, left, not disappoint his followers and hold a push Uncompromising. Social polarization that travels the world is the broader political context in which we must analyze social processes and. Andalusian elections will not escape this reality.
The result
It is the most populous region of the country (6,5 millions of people), the result is considered an indicator of voting intentions ahead of the municipal 2019 and any general election. Because, of bipartisanship forces they played all, as if it were a national vote.
The results were: PSOE-A: 27,9% – 33 seats; PP: 20,8% – 26 seats; Cs: 18,3% – 21 seats; forward Andalucía: 16,2% – 17 seats and Vox: 11% – He entered with 12 seats. A table detailing the elections 2018/15 illustrates the magnitude of political changes. The PSOE sank losing 14 seats, the PP lost 7 seats, added Cs 12, Vox entered with 12 Forward seats and fell Andalucía 20 a 17 seats.
Another important fact is that there was little participation 58,65%, almost four points lower than in the 2015, an element that demonstrates a share of disappointment with the parties and their adjustment policies and corruption. Previous surveys made predictions that did not consider the two fundamental phenomena: the magnitude of the collapse of the PSOE and vote Vox.
Possible coalitions to achieve an absolute majority of 55 they could be: Vox, PP and Citizens 59 seats; PSOE and Citizen 54; PSOE, forward Andalucía 50 and PP, citizens 47. The fact is that if the reactionary forces agree could be majority to govern. Both Juan Manuel Moreno and Juan Marin have been postulated for the investiture and They are willing to compromise with Vox, who does not want to be a stumbling block to take the power to "Communists" PSOE-A.
The shaken bipartisanship
The PSOE received a missile at the waterline, as Susana Díaz "La Sultana" he was ruling as continuity of socialist rule that lasted 36 years. He campaigned with "low profile" aiming to capitalize on its governance. At the end of the campaign, he devoted himself almost exclusively to request the vote waving the specter of Vox.
It is also a clear signal to Pedro Sanchez and the PSOE in his first race since the censure motion. The surveys said they were recovering nationally, Sunday's election puts a pall of doubt about and deepens the question of perspective.
For the PP was also a test for being the first race after the fall of Mariano Rajoy. Pablo Casado as the new leader they not know how they would fare in the distribution of voting right. Secretary general of the popular turned squarely to the campaign supporting Juan Manuel Moreno. Result, the PP continued to fall, although the electoral system can come to power. The PP-PSOE bipartisanship, axis of the constitutional assembly of '78 is increasingly discredited before the population, emptying content and riddled corruption.
Those who do not take advantage and yes
With the setback of the pillars of bipartisanship, while it is opening a great opportunity for can be transformed into an alternative that capitalizes ad nauseam with the old. Regrettably, that possibility away in each electoral race. forward Andalucía (We can-A, United Left, The Green-CA, IA and PA), led by Teresa Rodríguez, (Ballotpedia) He did not keep the sum of the votes of its two main members and backed. The fact that national can not be an alternative and deterioration in the image of Pablo Iglesias has an impossible weight of circumventing.
Their axes were criticism of the PSOE-A by the agreement with Citizens in the previous legislature, They were presented as "The only barrier to the right", "Alternative to the PSOE", with proposals “transparency and favorable changes people. "
The confluence of the elements mentioned facilitated growth Citizen. Inés Arrimadas (Andalusian birth) Catalunya left and settled in Andalusia with Albert Rivera to support its candidate Juan Marin. Cs played with the PP leadership space right, he did three political axes: "Against Catalan independence, against corruption and for a change " and it fared well because they grew on votes.
And the extreme right also favored, with a strong burst of Vox in institutions, for the first time, with Francisco Serrano Santiago Abascal candidate and maximum leader. This training has a program, antifeminist, xenophobic and homophobic, which rejects the current regime of autonomies and promotes a diehard Spanish nationalism. He presented no local structure and only national proposals.
Significantly, it is not less than the cooperation being paying some mass media to the installation of Cs and Vox on the big stage of national politics.
Reviews for discussion
The collapse of the PSOE-A was an unexpected bucket of cold water that Sanchez could not dodge and push the advancement of general elections. The two main exponents of bipartisanship continue to suffer major electoral setbacks which the couple deepen the problems of a regime exhausted, Progressive can not provide answers to most workers and people.
Citizens reaffirmed the dynamism that had already manifested itself when Arrimadas was the most voted in Catalonia. In no way you can ignore Vox growth in the context of a Europe where fachos poke their heads.
Amid growing political and social polarization, the loss of votes of the old parties focused his pendulum to the right. At another point he had moved to the opposite end when we appeared as a pinch of Indignant 15-M.
We are disenchanted thousands of people who believed that a truly progressive and substantive change was possible. With its adaptation to the regime for charges, his approach to the PSOE that is part of the problem not the solution and its internal mechanisms increasingly bureaucratic goes from crisis to crisis and does not appear as an alternative.
There are some cynics evaluating growth right and ultra as a response to "Process". Induce responsible for the appearance of fachos the millions of Catalans who voted democratically for self-determination referendum in the 1-O, political prisoners and exiles, those who do not want the king and oppression. It's a real dirty trick.
If you have a minimum of political honesty they would have to say that in Spain the regime of '78 is in effect, with Franco stamp that does not hinder the reactionaries in the development of policy, but rather it allows and encourages.
As well, many of those who say "Democratic", "Progressive" O "Republicans" They did not support self-determination, they set "Equidistant" of the 155 and the Catalan people. They keep a complicit silence to repression, the existence of political prisoners, the chasing, the trumped-up charges and cuts to democratic freedoms. This lack of active and mobilized solidarity with the Catalan struggle is that emboldens the right and the ultra.
The challenge: build a new political alternative
It would be safe to say that the vote marks the general trend and where the votes are in the Spanish State, Moreover in a country of dramatically changing realities. At the same time it would be a mistake to sit idly, waiting to see if the Andalusian scenario is repeated or not.
a great challenge opens: we must transform sadness and concern for the result in active and organized bronca to reverse or block right in all its expressions. Vox still not assumed or charge and already started demonstrations against. They are a great example to follow and demonstrate that arms must not lose.
Right growth is not irreversible nor is the dominant factor in the world situation which is polarization, electorally expressed at various junctures and with a clear majority against the reactionary mobilization.
In addition to face them in the streets, you have to drive a regrouping of forces truly democratic and consistent with it, building a new political alternative, anticapitalist, feminist, antiracist for the whole Spanish State.
Leading back to the end of a consistent program to favor large popular majority and not a handful of entrepreneurs, speculators and corrupt covered by local governments and the European Union. Build alternative is needed is a huge task, but not impossible, you have to start putting the pillars to achieve. It is one of the most important conclusions to draw from the Andalusian elections.
