Elections in the USA: Trump's strategy
byLuis Meiners
In a framework of uncertainty with a tight election that will be decided in a handful of states that are still counting votes, Trump said he won the election and accused a “sad group of people” of trying to prevent him. He argued that it is a “fraud on the American people” and “a shame for the country.”. In a highly polarized and judicialized election, Trump said he will take the case to the Supreme Court. Uncertainty grows in the political scene.
An election manipulated in the courts
The development of the elections within the framework of the pandemic meant a substantial increase in the number of votes by mail and also votes cast before election day. Although both modalities are commonly used in elections in the US, The current context implied that some states expanded these possibilities. A large part of the votes that remain to be counted correspond to those cast under these modalities. It is presumed that these favor the Democratic Party candidate by a wide margin., which could be decisive in several states where margins are tight.
In this frame, The Republican Party concentrated a large part of its efforts in recent weeks towards a legal battle for these votes. According to a study carried out by Stanford – MIT, at least 380 lawsuits related to the electoral process linked to the changes introduced by the pandemic. The Trump campaign's strategy was aimed at reducing the impact of measures that expanded the possibility of voting by mail. At the same time, During the election campaign, Trump publicly criticized this way of voting, maintaining the possibility that it led to fraud and refusing to affirm that he would recognize the electoral result.. This resulted in the counting of mail-in votes being reserved until the last minute in some states..
Trump and the Republican Party have been preparing for a scenario like the current one, that the Democrats sought to avoid with a wide margin victory that did not materialize.
What's next
The uncertainty about the electoral result is going to continue. On Wednesday morning, results are still missing from key states like Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. In some of them, The trend seems to favor Biden, although by very small margins. Everything seems to indicate that there will be strong disputes in the courts.
All this unfolds in a scenario of strong polarization., in a year where a historic rebellion has occurred. In the early hours of Wednesday, Some mobilizations were recorded in cities such as Portland and Washington. In the run-up to the electoral process, Some unions had declared that they would resist any attempt by Trump to undermine the election result and claim premature victory.. The memory of the elections of the year 2000, in which everything came down to Florida and the Democrats ended up conceding Al Gore's defeat to Bush without putting up a fight, shows that despite the rhetoric of “defense of democracy”, the Democratic Party prefers to lose than question an undemocratic regime.
At this moment the most likely scenario seems to be a scenario of increasing polarization, between legal battles and mobilizations in the streets, with an outcome still uncertain.
