Chile: it is possible to liquidate the "30 years" regime

By Joaquín Araneda and Martín Miranda

Analyze an election, fundamentally one as complex as the one we just experienced in Chile, raises a great possibility of approaches and perspectives. In this first balance, We will carry out an analysis of the main political conclusions that emerge from the election, its conjunctural framework and medium-term development possibilities. We have the joy of doing it from the point of view of being part of the process and contributing an opinion that seeks to be a tool of political organization to transform everything..

The right at its worst

Elections to the Constitutional Convention, They showed with complete clarity the repudiation of the right, fundamentally to the government conglomerate. The blow could have been worse if it had not been for the unity they knew how to sustain in the retreat, unit strained by internal dispute and the need to find new leadership. With the numbers reported by Servel, a total of 155 seats, are entering 37 constituents with an election 20% at the national level. RN and the UDI emerge stronger within the coalition with 15 Y 17 respectively and the Republican Party as the worst positioned without managing to elect representatives, incorporated polarizing Marinovic with an “independent” quota.

That is to say, the government conglomerate does not reach the third, Therefore, it does not have the power of veto to be able to play a role of containment and pressure in the CC and this generates great concern in the establishment., which has already been expressed in the fall of the stock market.

But this is just one side of the beating, because when it comes to governorates, the scenario is even worse, of the 16 disputes throughout the country, the government conglomerate does not win any and although there are several open fights that will be settled in the second round, The rejection numbers for Chile Vamos are resounding.

The scenario is similar at the level of mayors and councils.. As Piñera himself clearly summarized it hours after the election, people gave them a clear message, in the form of an electoral beating, message that was first built in the streets since the October days of the 2019 to this part.

The coup shakes the regime of the 30 years

The former concertation, the other fundamental pillar of the “30 years” regime, also receives the electoral blow with two levels of intensity. The first and most extensive wave hits them in the election of constituents where the rupture is expressed in a more complete expression. The “Approval list” obtains little more than 800 thousand votes nationwide, which represents a 14% Y 25 constituents, of which 15 They belong to the Socialist Party. The second, more mediated by the real possibilities of the existence of alternative lists, it hits them in the gubernatorial and mayoral elections. This data allows them to try to draw an explanation, but the essence of the results indicates that they are the conglomerate, after the ruling right, What comes out worse overall?. With the additional difficulty that they will surely play the role, nothing new, to try to sustain the institutionality and the model as similar as possible to the current one.

An additional information, not minor, is that inside this space, at the level of governorates and mayors, the most “conservative” sectors gain weight, showing an abandonment of its “more left-wing” social base and its shift to more radical options, increasing tensions and pressure left and right.

Added to this, Also key is the role of the “independent” candidacies that competed on the lists of these conglomerates, obtaining good results in general and contributing in this way to making the fall from grace of the parties that for years starred in Chilean politics less noticeable, guaranteeing the model that crashed against the popular tide in October 2019.

PC / FA and an election that strengthens them in the dispute within the opposition

It is evident that the overall choice, hits the right and favors the left. In this framework, the Communist Party and the Frente Amplio can score a victory in this area within the framework of their strategy of leading the opposition under the terms of the regime.. Not only because they achieve important political victories, how to stay with the mayor of Santiago, Ñuñoa and Viña del Mar or the governorate of the province of Valparaíso. Jadue in particular is re-elected with a vote higher than 60% in Recoleta and in the constituent assembly they prevail over the former Concertación bloc, obtaining almost 19% at the national level and 28 constituents with just over a million votes.

In the coming days we will see if these numbers are enough to impose an agreement on the entire bourgeois opposition to contest the presidential elections or if the unity that they preach so much dies due to internal pressure and the crossfire of interests..

It is evident that for an important sector of the bourgeoisie, the image of the Communist Party taking the helm is not at all pleasant as a message, beyond the fact that it is very far from being a truly revolutionary party, that of the Broad Front, What happened with the test of the Pact for Peace presents a more interesting and less strident profile.

These numbers cannot hide that being the space furthest to the left of the regime, with device, resource and structure, The independent “phenomenon” largely reflects that a very important percentage of the mobilized people identify them as part of the old, even in key districts like D10, They appealed to independent figures like Atria, who obtained a significant vote compared to the most modest ones on the entire list..

A separate paragraph deserves the meager vote of Barbara Figueroa, the management from CUT, in D12, precisely reflecting that the union bureaucracy generates little enthusiasm as an alternative.

Irruption of the independent phenomenon

If the coup to the right and the ex-concertation are the most prominent expressions “due to the refusal” of the election, The emergence of a large number of independent constituents is undoubtedly the expression “for the positive”, adding to this point the important vote for female candidates driven by the powerful feminist tide, which implied that “gender correction” was applied in favor of men, a real contradiction.

It is clear that we cannot speak of an “independent bench” from a programmatic and political point of view., but 65 seats will be occupied in the Convention by people who ran outside the traditional parties.

Beyond being elected in some cases or not, The lists linked to assemblies and social movements obtained important votes, with youth standing out among them., the movement in defense of the environment, the feminist movement and the sectors of grassroots unionism.

With about 900 thousand votes throughout the country and 22 elected constituents the “People's List” is the one that collected most of that momentum, With a diffuse program and clear references to the figures of the outbreak, it will have a key role in the CC and without a doubt a huge test., unexpected just a few months ago.

It is evident that the fundamental conclusion that this irruption raises as a possibility the defeat of the Constitutional Convention of the “pact for peace” and places as the first fundamental task that of establishing a free and sovereign Constituent Assembly, with the power to change everything. The popular vote is indicative of this and those directions that are proposed from “the possible” can only recognize that the “surprise” that was expressed in the election has shifted the political dial to the left..

More than looking for certain “common minimums” as declared by the candidate with the most votes from The People's List, The way is to ensure that the old parties harshly punished in the elections do not impose their conditions.

This does not at all mean confidence in the future of the CC., Today the electoral demonstration is more substantial than the directions in which it is expressed and that is clear and has been clear since the 18 of October of 2019 to this part. But without a doubt, Far from the testimonial position, it becomes clear that from the anti-capitalist left we must fight to influence an open political phenomenon and with the emergence of multiple sectors that come to the seats with more than radical proposals from the point of view of the interests of the majorities.. How to do it? first of all trying to understand the magnitude of the phenomenon.

Secondly, insisting on the need for independent self-organization of the parties of the 30 years, democratically and throughout the country to promote mobilization so that the demands that were already expressed in the street and in the electoral result are reflected in the new constitution and are not taken from the “recipe” by the professionals of the parliamentary kitchen. On that path, work tirelessly for the organization of a new political reference capable of structuring that force and giving it continuity and revolutionary meaning..

The balance of the Anticapitalist Movement

Our group, the Anticapitalist Movement, It has only been around for a few years. During the October outbreak we participated and managed to build a dynamic group that has since sought to develop boldly in the whirlwind of events., counting for this with the support of the International Socialist League. Despite the profound restrictions resulting from the pandemic, we launched to promote the presentation of two independent candidacies: that of Camilo Parada Ortiz in D10 and Maura Fajardo Gálvez in D12. Previously we promoted the command for free and sovereign CA, seeking the possibility of more general agreements that would raise the possibility of a confluence. If these agreements failed to be developed, it was not because of our refusal., but because of the restrictive conditions of the political regime on the one hand and the attempts at false hegemony of some sectors on the other..

Because, Without abandoning the fight to advance in a higher unit, we decided to register our candidacies by doing a great militant activity that allowed us to gather sponsorships first and carry out a clearly anti-capitalist campaign., feminist, dissident, ecosocialist and with a radical program, that expressed our strategy towards the construction of a new revolutionary political reference. It is surprising to read lies on this point in some balance sheets., obviously without any demonstration, like the one published by the PTR colleagues (International Trotskyist faction) in La Izquierda Diario de Argentina, where they accuse us of “adaptation” amalgamating our position with the criticism they make of the People's List. The strange thing is that after minimizing our participation, They omit to say that in both districts our candidacies far exceeded the complete lists of their party and in particular in the District 10 our colleague Camilo Parada obtained about 9 thousand votes against 1550 by Dauno Tótoro, main figure of the PTR, very similar tone in the District 12.

The revolutionary left, small in our country, had different tactics regarding the process, María Rivera from MIT was elected, integrating the People's List in the D5 and other expressions of the radical left participated in different ways. We believe that these different tactics are valid, The important thing to intervene in the coming process is not to falsify reality to discuss and to do so from the point of view of trying to influence without sectarianism or opportunism, putting forward a revolutionary horizon for the new Chile that has opened..

That was the challenge we took on and it is evident that with inequalities we were able to connect with a sector that opted, with your vote and participation, to our breakup candidacies, who rose outside of any pact. Despite the profound inequalities of resources, our candidacies, with 8.226 votes (2.21%) in the district 12 Y 8.773 votes (2,07%) in the district 10 They surpassed a large part of the candidates of the traditional parties and even some who were elected and the most important thing is that this support was expressed even knowing that without a list it was more than difficult to obtain a seat..

New debates arise for the left, social movements, feminists, socio-environmental and the independent 30 years that we must address to act in the face of the new open situation in our country, ignore that we are facing a new phenomenon, hide it or accuse those of us who intervened by reading that perspective, as a method it does not help to draw conclusions and is part of the old. Our disposition is raised to continue strengthening the ties and necessary units of the various sectors in struggle to advance with a single fist on all fronts to recover everything that has been taken from us..

We came out of this process ready to be an active part of the new and to make an organizational leap., We prepare for this and that is our fundamental balance..