Belarusian workers have no desire to fight in Ukraine

Then, we reproduce a note from 23/02/2023, published by the Salidarnast Association, registered in Bremen, Germany. It was founded by trade union leaders and activists from Belarus, who were forced to leave the country after the ban on free and democratic trade unions and the repression of their leaders and activists.

“Acting Chairman of the Congress of Democratic Trade Unions of Belarus, Maxim Pazniakou, believes that neither the Belarusians nor Lukashenko are ready to fight for the interests of Russia, are you sure about this. Nevertheless, will this be enough to refrain from war?

War is a big phobia for Belarusians; but both the Lukashenko regime and the opposition forces are using this phobia now. Neither side is directly in favor of the war., though all have chosen sides in the conflict. We tried to find out: what do Belarusian workers think about the war in Ukraine?

Recently, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's office urged Belarusians to be prepared for war and to do everything possible to“protect themselves and their loved ones”. The alarming appeal made everyone wonder: why did the political opposition alarm people? Do they possess such information that proves that Belarus will inevitably be involved in the war?

Probably, the Tsikhanovskaya office was thinking aloud after a break to return to the briefing schedule. Whether it's a public relations move, or the presence of an infiltrator, or both at the same time, touched the main nerve of the Belarusians. Your main phobia.

Stability as a core value

Stability and peace were the main ideologies that defined the foundations of the current regime in Belarus.. The victory of the USSR in World War II and the enormous human losses, stability and a peaceful sky: all this was the main leitmotif of state propaganda during the last 30 years. And for good reason: the main argument of Lukashenko's policy, until some time ago, it sounded like that: I wish there was no war.

The dictator himself likes to put on the mask of a peacemaker and guarantee stability. This was the case during Russia's aggression against Georgia in 2008 Y 2014; during the hostilities in Donbass, when Minsk officially assumed the role of a trading platform. At one of his public gatherings, Lukashenko proudly declared that“the world community considers Belarus as a donor of regional security”.

From August 2020, with the violent repression of peaceful protests in Belarus and the use of army units, the dictator's rhetoric began to change. To stay in power, sustain constant terror and consolidate its objectives, saw the need to justify the militarization of the country.

State media use a propaganda stamp about the external threat and the militarization of neighboring countries. The provocative Belarusian regime brought ten thousand immigrants from the Middle East to the border with these countries. It is gradually becoming a“regional security donor” in a"danger donor".

Analysts interpreted Lukashenko's provocation as an attempt to incite a border conflict, to divert attention from the questions about its legitimacy that were developed in 2020. The dictator's goal might have been to secure his position. But the situation changed drastically in the winter of 2022.

An ally of the bully

On the night of 24 February, units of the Russian troops began to shell Ukraine with rockets and bombs from all possible directions. For millions of Belarusians, the most shocking moment of those days was the fact that a part of the Russian troops invaded Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, where, so to speak, they were conducting joint exercises with the Belarusian army. Belarusians became hostages to Lukashenko's personal decision to allow Russian aggression from the territory of a sovereign country.

– There was anger at impotence, for not being able to do anything and help somehow, – dice Pavel, who at that time worked in Belarus. – I watched the Ukrainian news all the time, all these missile attacks on ukrainian cities only caused me hatred and anger. I started looking for an opportunity to help financially and started donating money to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and civilians who had to leave their homes..

The state of shock paralyzed active Belarusians for several days. The feeling of helplessness has become basic for the majority of citizens. But this did not prevent four days later after the start of the war, thousands of demonstrators flock to the protests in Minsk. And this happened despite the fact that repressions and massive arrests have been taking place in the country for more than a year.. That day, 28 February, more of 800 protesters were detained near the building of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus.

Even after the arrests, the Belarusians did not accept the war. Dozens of acts of sabotage took place on the Belarusian railway used to transport Russian military equipment. During the arrest of the Belarusian railway partisans, the authorities fired at them with military weapons. They shot in the knees of the detainees and showed the wounded on the propaganda channels of state television, scaring other people willing to resist.

To this day, in Belarus the hunt for those who speak out against the war continues, leak information about the movement of Russian military equipment or post messages of solidarity with the Ukrainian people.

An exemplary case was the arrest and trial of pop singer Mary Gerasimenko, who performed a song by the Ukrainian band“Ocean Elzy” at one of his concerts in Belarus. All Ukrainian national symbols, as well as the Belarusians, become grounds for arrest. Thus, one really gets the impression that Belarus is secretly under Russian occupation.

protest exodus

The regime officially continues to support Russia, his last ally, providing everything necessary for your support: Military equipment, test sites, transportation infrastructure, instructors for the training of the mobilized. But society itself does not support Lukashenko's military orientation. Despite the fact that all the media, television and radio are in the hands of the state. Anyway, Belarusians do not support the war.

During the conversation with us, a businessman from Minsk, which is currently located in Belarus, He pointed out that he had not even seen people supporting the war:

“Among those with whom I communicate, I did not see a single person who approves military actions. There are people who say that a war was brewing, or that something was going to happen. But I don't know anyone who approves of war.".

For many citizens who were apolitical, this position of Lukashenko on the war became unacceptable. Those who had the opportunity to do so, they decided to emigrate.

Even the participants in the protests of 2020, which continued in Belarus, they started to leave. Those who did not have the opportunity to obtain a visa for the European Union, went to Georgia or Central Asia. They were mainly representatives of small and medium-sized companies, and representatives of the IT sphere.

According to Polish migration services, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine and Georgia, more of 100.000 citizens left Belarus between 2020 Y 2023. Some experts claim that 300.000 they have left the country. The latest wave of mass exodus was chained by reports of imminent mobilization in Belarus.

He killed you, a businessman from Minsk who moved to Batumi (Georgia) a few months ago, believes that the reason many left the country was a complex of problems, but the country's involvement in the war was a key moment:

“The war had an impact, Of course. There is absolutely no judiciary, there are no laws that protect people. Thus, no sense of security. It is understood that your business is carried out as long as the authorities do not touch it; but as soon as the authorities start an investigation against you, you can lose everything or go to prison. This is despite the fact that you are running a legal business and paying taxes.. I think that the Belarusian people and the army, after all, They will not enter into this unnecessary and meaningless conflict.".

The voice of the workers

Among the protests of 2020 and the beginning of the war, a small number of non-governmental organizations remained legally established in Belarus. During this time, the authorities liquidated about 700 organizations and initiatives.

The only mass organizations left in Belarus at that time were the democratic unions. Of course, the leadership of the Congress of Democratic Trade Unions of Belarus, BKDP, could not help but condemn the aggressors. Thus, BKDP openly called on Russia to stop the war and condemned the complicity of the Belarusian regime in the aggression. a few weeks later, unions were registered, Union leaders and activists were arrested and, later, all independent unions were liquidated. Today, more of 40 Representatives of independent unions have been convicted and dozens are in prison.

Maxim Pazniakou, acting president of the Belarusian Congress of Democratic Trade Unions (BKDP) who managed to leave Belarus, believes that any war is unacceptable for the majority of Belarusian workers:

“If we take into account the data from sociological studies, we see that the majority of workers do not support the war. This is most likely due to several reasons.. First, The historical rejection of war is characteristic of Belarusians. We have survived many wars that have passed through our territory. All the horrors of the war remained in genetic memory. Secondly, there is the fear of having to fight. There are no fools among workers who are ready to lower their heads for something unknown. Belarusians have no imperialist ambitions. Thus, there are no Belarusian interests in the war of aggression that Russia is currently waging. In third place, “There are very good neighborly relations between Belarusians and Ukrainians”.

The unionist believes that the majority of young people will try to avoid the mobilization:

“Because this is a new generation that was raised with humanistic principles. The protests of 2020 They showed that society is against violence. Older people are most likely to silently participate in the mobilization, but they will be very unmotivated as soldiers. I think that not even the representatives of the repressive state power are motivated and willing to participate en masse in this war.. Why, partly, people went to serve in these state structures to get housing, cheap loans and a pension that is not bad by Belarusian standards. Thus, if Lukashenko assembles an army, its effectiveness will be very doubtful. I'm sure that, if there is a war with the participation of Belarus, It will be a defense war for the Belarusian authorities. Or if hostilities move to our territory. So for Lukashenko it will be the protection of his power and his life.

Yahor, an employee of a Salihorsk company, believes that workers are intimidated, just like the entire society:

“People are worried, but at the same time he calms down: it will not affect us and Lukashenko will not risk the Belarusian army. But at the same time, the fear of war is always present. Regarding Belarus' participation in the war, I don't rule it out, It is possible”.

Aliaksandr, an employee of one of the Gomel companies believes that there are few supporters of the “Russian world” and the war in the workforce:

“The majority of workers condemn the start of the war and demonstrate against it.”, but everyone is afraid to openly state their position. Because it is very dangerous and for conviction you can go, in the best case, one day in jail. Thus, when people talk about this topic, they choose the safe environment in which they speak it. If we talk about the percentage relationship, in my opinion, around the 85% of the workers are against the war and the 15% They are those who support Russia against Ukraine. The longer this all goes on, Belarus is less likely to get involved in this war.

Oksana, employee of a company in Brest, believes that this war will be fratricidal for Belarusians:

“Many of my friends and relatives have relatives in Ukraine. My husband is Ukrainian by nationality. We have continued to support Ukrainians since last February. We are against the war unleashed by Russia. Not a day goes by in closed circles without discussing the news from Ukraine. We communicate with relatives from there. They tell us the terrible realities of war.

Co-workers are also against the war, they condemn her. They want everything to end soon. After all, some also have family there with whom they keep in touch. Now at work I hear little discussion about the war in Ukraine. Maybe they are afraid, Or maybe they just don't want to share their pain with other people.. I did not observe ardent defenders of Russia in this war, but there are also, as my colleagues told me.

I am more inclined to the fact that Belarus will not participate in hostilities. All the men in my circle say they won't go fight the Ukrainians. This is nice and gives hope that Belarusians will not go to foreign lands with weapons.".

Although there are quite a few supporters of Russia's actions in Ukraine among Belarusians, it was not possible to talk to them. There is also a category of those who are ready to defend Russian interests with weapons, but sociologists believe that this is a rather small and marginal part of society.

There are fewer and fewer who are in favor of war

The researchers also tried to find out the attitude of Belarusian society to military events. The most recent studies were conducted in the fall of 2022. They were carried out jointly by «Belarusian Analytical Workshop» and «Chatham House».

Doctor of Sociological Sciences Andrei Vardamatski reported that the vast majority of Belarusians, including representatives of the regime, They are against the entry of Belarusian troops into Ukraine: he 85% of the respondents. He 51% of respondents disapprove of Russia's actions in Ukraine, while almost the 40% approves them. more than 50% sympathizes with Ukraine and only the 20% with Russia. He 61% of those surveyed do not consider Belarus to be complicit in the conflict, he 33% yes.

According to the “Chatham House” investigation, he 42% of Belarusians consider that the war in Ukraine, unleashed by Russia, makes no sense. This was reported by the head of the Belarusian initiative “Chatham House” Ryhor Astapenia.

A) Yes, according to the survey, the number of those who believe that it was necessary to support Russia after the start of the war (without Belarus joining it) decreased one 6% in six months (of the 28% al 22%). And those who are in favor of war are becoming fewer and fewer. At the same time, the idea of ​​Belarus entering the war on one side or the other was, and it remains, marginal. Total, only the 7% of Belarusian supporters joined the war. He 45% of Belarusians do not support Russia's actions. It must be taken into account that the 30% of respondents expressed full or partial support.

Those interviewed also believe that the Belarusian army would try to avoid participating in the war if Belarus decided to do so.. In August 2022, he 20 % of those surveyed responded that our soldiers and officers would refuse to fight and lay down their arms. It is interesting that in April 2022 The actions of the Belarusian army to lay down their arms were approved by the 42% of the respondents, then in August 49% supported such decision.

Does the opinion of citizens matter?

The representativeness of sociological research could be questionable; Nevertheless, The general picture shows the attitude of society: Belarusians do not want to participate in the war. further, state officials do not express the opinion of the country's residents, although state sociological services can provide results mandated by the state.

Most likely, the authorities also know perfectly well the position of the overwhelming majority of citizens and are trying to preserve at least the last of the regime's promises.: not to participate in open war. further, Russia's military successes appear fragile. Thus, the belligerent rhetoric of the Belarusian dictator began to change a little. Here is a public reminder of the idea of ​​a non-aggression pact with Ukraine, as well as a guarantee for his supporters that the dictator has no plans to attack Ukraine:

“Today they shout: “Lukashenko wants to send his troops to Ukraine!"I have already said 1.200 times when I have no such plans. […] We have nothing to do there – in Ukraine. And we don't need to send people to fight there.".

But can these statements be taken seriously?? Many remember Lukashenko's statement of 2015 that Belarus will never attack Ukraine. Nevertheless, Then he added that if it does not contradict the interests of the country.

Lukashenko's main interest is his power, which today depends completely on Putin's support. And the fate of Putin and Russia is now being decided in Ukraine. Therefore, everything will depend on whether Russia needs Belarusian cannon fodder or not.

And almost no one will ask the opinion of the citizens of Belarus. The authorities have not done this for the last 30 years. They won't do it now either.. further, obedience is a specific characteristic of Belarusians. And the results of reconciliation of the number of recruited citizens of the Republic of Belarus, which took place a month ago, confirm this opinion. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus, he 95% of the recruits arrived at the military police stations at the first call.

A sad conclusion is reached. Belarusians en masse do not support the war and do not want to participate in it, and your opinion does not affect the actions of the country's political regime. The problem of Belarusians is the lack of subjectivity”.

Author: Felipe the Old