New world order or more disorder?¹

4/4/2025

By: International Socialist League

Trump returned to the White House and kicked the table on which the entire world imperialist configuration was ordered, With all its institutions, alliances, Commercial and delicate agreements of power balances. It is still impossible to know how the chips that now fly through the air will fall, But it is clear that nothing will be just from now on. We are facing changes in a magnitude similar to those that occurred at the end of World War II or after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Capitalism has not recovered from the systemic crisis that exploded in 2008 nor can it do it without a new World War for which the main powers are not yet prepared or a monumental jump in the exploitation that the resistance of the working masses has not yet allowed. The imperialist bourgeoisie needs more repressive regimes to break this resistance and impose a level of superxploitation that the save of the crisis. This need makes a sector of the ruling class impulse the current rise of the extreme right and the turn of the bourgeois political arch to the right and authoritarianism.

Trump is part of this global phenomenon that his triumph features, strengthening other expressions of extreme right in the world. Unlike your first mandate, It has the direct support of a bourgeois sector, particularly the technological one, The richest men in the world, and the active or liabilities accompaniment of the bulk of the American ruling class.

This support comes from a conclusion to which the American bourgeoisie has arrived as a whole: Inter imperialist agreements based on American hegemony established after World War II and the impulse to capitalist globalization after the Soviet Union no longer serves them. A couple of decades ago, The US domain comes in back and strengthens are strengthened both regional and China worldwide. The American bourgeoisie as a whole knows what a change is needed. They will not all be convinced that it is Trump's, Musk y cia., But being the only one raised, are willing to see if it gives results.

This project seeks to impose a structural transformation of the American political and economic regime and the world geopolitical configuration to increase the profits of the American bourgeoisie both in absolute terms, increasing the exploitation and extraction of surplus value, as in relative terms, capturing a greater portion of the global mass of surplus value at the expense of the competitors.

Since Trump assumed, His government has implemented a battery of measures to minimize the social functions of the State, From pausar all international aid to disarm the Ministry of Education. Elon Musk obtained super powers to try to cut 2 billions of dollars, One third, of the national budget. An unprecedented adjustment that will fall on the whole of the US working people. Has redoubled the persecution and criminalization of immigrants, deepening your superexplootation, which generates extraordinary profits in key sectors of the economy and presses down the set of wages.

The new government also promotes a structural political transformation that aims to impose a more authoritarian and repressive regime. The pardon to the militants of the attempt against the Congress of 2020, Nothing disguised political persecution and kidnappings and deportations of activists of the Palestinian cause with legal residence and Venezuelans to Bukele concentration camps are the most outgoing examples of this orientation.

The authoritarian turn is necessary to pass the adjustment plans that drive, But it is also part of its "cultural struggle" to consolidate a reactionary social base rooted in sectors of the country's working and small bourgeoisie. Blatantly racist positions, xenophobic, misóginas, homophobes and nationalists and attacks on the rights of all oppressed sectors have this purpose.

All the internal policy of the new government contributes to the central objective of intensifying exploitation to increase capitalist profits. All its foreign policy points to the same purpose in the route that the American bourgeoisie stays with a greater portion of global surplus value at the expense of competitors in the rest of the world.

Protectionist nationalism and rates that are imposing on imports of rivals and China and historical business partners such as Canada, Mexico and Europe give advantages to local companies to make profits in the powerful US market. Some of these measures harm US multinationals who have much of their production installed abroad. They bet that they have to repatriate their operations, strengthening the national bourgeoisie.

With the same purpose, The Trump government has caused a global change in the imperialist geopolitical configuration. He has broken the main alliances and multilateral organizations from which the United States has projected its power since World War II. See in all that scaffold an unnecessary expense with an obsolete purpose, an stocks that has backed American imperialism in front of their competitors and who need to get rid of defending their hegemony.

Intends to replace it with a new order based on the law of the most raw capitalism jungle. Seeks to negotiate with the main military and economic powers a new cast of the world at the end of the rest, and an agreement in which the US, still the greatest force, Keep your superiority. Trump's negotiations with Putin illustrate this orientation, And the close relationship of Russia with China opens the hypothesis that it is part of an eventual global negotiation. Nevertheless, No agreement enters the main imperialist powers would eliminate competition, dispute and conflicts between them.

This strategy implies subjecting all the semicolonial countries that can and also to the historical allies of the US such as Europe, Canada or Japan. With Patoteril extortion, Try to impose tax trade relations and break their sovereignty to make the territories and conditions that it deems necessary to place themselves with more force against the other emerging powers.

The negotiation between Trump and Putin to distribute the territory and resources of the country between Russia and the US behind the Ukrainian people and the EU is the clearest example. Trump's intervention to end the "visible" war in Gaza and enable the ethnic cleaning of the Palestinians while expressing his intentions of founding an American colony in Gaza is in the same sense. Like the ads of their intentions to colonize Greenland and take control of the Panama Canal or the threat of Annexar Canada to the US..

It remains to be seen how much of your project the Trump government effectively achieves. But we are already facing a structural change in the configuration of world imperialism. Although they seek to create a new world order that saves capitalism from their systemic crisis, They are more likely to generate a more unstable and conflicting world, a world disorder as we have never seen. By questioning all power relations, alliances and disputes that provided some stability level, Numerous borders will enter into dispute, sovereignty and areas of influence. The process of reconfiguring the order they seek to build will unleash more regional conflicts and wars.

This is particularly clear and alarming in Europe whose bourgeoisie, abandoned by its American protector and pressed by a Russia on the offensive, He has all the intention of entering the race to recover as an imperialist power with his own weight. The EU states and the United Kingdom have launched a hurried military, Duplicating or tripling military budgets, reconvirting its steel industry, Automotive and technological to the production of weapons and relating or strengthening its nuclear weapons programs.

In addition to generating a more dangerous world and prone to war, Rearmament will imply an adjustment and attack at the standard of living that European workers have not faced in decades. This in a context of, on the one hand, Extreme right rise, Right to the right of political forces and advancement of antimigration policies, authoritarian and reactionary that will be deepened with the militarization and adjustment that is coming. Y, for the other, Years of promotion of the class struggle indicating that all the orientation of the bourgeoisie will cause strong resistance.

The imperialist offensive is a part of the polarization process that has on the other side resistance, mass movements, strikes, rebellions and revolutions. When the class struggle intensifies, This offensive can also clear some obstacles of ideological confusion and generate more space for the revolutionary left.

The main imperialist power has abandoned its democratic costume, Buying that Western imperialism that embodied the deception of liberal democracy and humanitarian capitalism. The revolutionaries will be the only defenders of freedom, democracy and self -determination of peoples. The ongoing negotiation on Ukraine unmasks both NATO and Russia, revealing the purely imperialist interests of both. It also exposes Zelensky and the cowardly Ukrainian bourgeoisie, willing to deliver country and people to negotiate part of their wealth. It reveals that the only friends of the Ukrainian working people are the revolutionaries and the peoples of the world that we support from the beginning to the Ukrainian people and their resistance against Russian invasion and the interference of all imperialism.

The revolutionaries have to analyze the deep changes that are ongoing to intervene in the acute struggles that are coming. We cannot predict the outcome, But the attacks on working masses will be more acute, van to be resisted, that the defense of democratic rights will collect greater importance, and that as long as they do not defeat us, There will be opportunities to build matches, And if we advance in the principle regrouping of the revolutionaries, it will be raised to build a new revolutionary new and strong international.

April, 2025

_{¹This text was sent as a contribution of the LIS to the III International Meeting that took place in Paris del 16 al 18 of May. The previous two were in Milan.}