Argentina: Budget 2019 and Public Debt "The income of the usurer is the perpetual servitude countries"

Hector report Giuliano (1) At a time when the National Congress is debating the Budget project 2019, whose structure is armed to meet the demands of the IMF, We reproduce an extensive report by Mr. Héctor Giuliano. This specialist in finance and public debt is the author of a very rigorous investigation on Argentine public debt.

Socialist alternative: What are the country's debt mechanisms??

Hector Giuliano: As a starting point I will explain this to you.: people don't understand, It is not even explained, What is the underlying problem of public debt?.

What is the perpetual debt trap that Argentina has fallen into and from which it cannot escape??

I sum it up this way: The logic of the usurious lender is not that the debtor returns his money but that he can never return it.. Because the income of the usurer is the perpetual servitude of the countries. This applies to a person, a company, a state..
So the key, and this is the debt system in which Argentina lives, is that since 40 years without continuity solution, since 1976 to date and with the change of all governments, The logic of this debt system remained the same: taking on debt without the ability to repay, I pay more and more interest, impossible to rescue capital. I consequently live paying interest while refinancing every penny of principal and continuing to take on more debt.. And they still congratulate us because we got into debt.
They trust us because they lend us a debt that we cannot pay and the interests grow more and more. These debt cycles that are financial cycles equivalent to economic cycles. A first stage of slingshot is coming: “Guys, go into debt and international rates are cheap.”, There is an excess of financial capital in the world!!”.
But there comes a time when a turning point occurs., I can't pay more interest. At this moment, not only does Argentina not pay a cent of capital, refinance every penny of maturing debt. Take on astronomically more debt, priceless, and pay more and more interest. seizing the cannons that the people themselves have paid for by subscription 20 O 30% You cannot pay that interest.. Capitalizes them by anatocism.
Anatocism is compound interest. You finance the interest that you cannot pay. You capitalize on it.. That is to say, the logic of usury is fulfilled., the interest of the interests. It's like you have a credit card, You can't even pay the fee for the tapas, but you cannot pay the interest they charge you on that fee either.. Then the bank graciously takes and finances the interest. Well that is happening with Argentina.
And at this moment public interest spending is the main state expense. More than the net of retirements, because that clarified it because more than once it gives rise to confusion, because it is true that the pension expense is much higher, it is 1 billion 300.000 millions of pesos. But be careful that pension spending also has its income., of contributions and contributions. When you do the math, the net pension expense is left to you. 400 billion pesos, which is no small feat from now on, for next year's budget.
But you have to pay debt interest 750.000 millions. Almost double. For debt interest only, not for capital

AS: When you talk about debt, Are you talking about external debt or public debt??

HG: Let's clarify the difference. We must talk about public debt. The public debt is the one borne by the central state, And be careful, there is a very important restriction here., When we talk about public debt we only talk about the debts owed by the central State., of the National State, of the Macri government. Here we are not putting the debt of the provinces, municipalities, state companies, national organizations, trusts, Central Bank – which is a separate account – nor lawsuits against the state lost with a final sentence.
The national public debt that would be the sum in these different areas is not known, it's secret, no government informs it. We do not know how much Argentina owes. The only thing we know is how much the central government owes. The government reports it in installments and with quite a delay. For example, The latest data we have from the Ministry of Economy is the debt to 30 June of this year: 340.600 millions of dollars, what is public debt.
Now your question. External debt is the debt contracted with residents abroad.. When the total public debt is given, care must be taken because one part is the total public external debt of the state and another part is the private external debt of companies.. At this moment – ​​according to INDEC figures 30 June of this year – the stock of external debt is 261.500 millions of dollars, of which 181.000 are Public External Debt and the 103.500 remaining is Private External Debt, of companies and/or banks that have taken on debt abroad.

AS: Do they have a state guarantee?

HG: They do not have it directly, but they do have it indirectly, because since it is debt contracted by companies that are in Argentina and operate in pesos, but they have to pay it in foreign currency, If the government devalues ​​a lot, how is it devaluing?, The problem arises as to whether the government does not have to compensate the exchange difference..
This was the famous negotiation that took place in the year 1983/85 when the Alfonsín government. Cavallo raised it when he was president of the Central Bank at the end of the military government, of the Bignone government, but the radical government formalized it, with Machinea at the head of the Central Bank. The transfer of private external debt to public external debt was accepted, because there had been a macro devaluation involved. And then the companies - almost 1000 Business- They benefited from the state assuming the exchange difference. Among them Macri's SOCMA group, which at today's values ​​I think could be around 800 millions of dollars. It was the scandal by which the government transferred private external debt to public external debt!!
But back to your question, The most important thing is not to confuse external debt with public debt. The public debt of the state can be internal or external. If the state places Letes here it is internal debt, but if you place as you did with the 9 billion Caputo in January, on the New York Stock Exchange, then it is external debt.
Total public debt, only at the head of the Central State latest data, 30 June of this year, like i said: 340.600 millions of dollars. and external debt, on the same date 261.500 millions, of which the vast majority is public external debt, some 181.000 millions.

AS: To that consolidated debt 30 of June, We must now add the loan with the IMF and the transfer from Lebacs to Letes?

HJ: Exact, I was saying that Debt figures are always reported with a time lag. Note that we are in November and the government has just reported the data to the 30 of June. Here they are now 15.000 million from the IMF but it is not clear how much the rest of the debts contracted to date amount to (new Letes and Lecap case, Multilateral Credit Organizations such as the World Bank, the IDB and the CAF, and the new IMF disbursement). I estimate that at this moment the debt stock may be around 370 million dollars but the estimates are confusing because as a result of the strong devaluation the government is liquidating the debt in pesos and therefore a part of the total debt is “decreasing” when expressed in dollars (with the important clarification that this debt that is being liquidated is almost all intra-State Debt).
Indeed, two large loads of debt came. First the disbursement of the monetary fund, 15 billion dollars, and then the Lebac transfer program from the Central Bank to the Treasury. Which means that the debt that was in another account, because the Central Bank is a separate account, starts to go down and what starts to go up is the Treasury debt because it is being absorbed.
That's where you told me about my article since I had been warning about it in April or May., because be careful with the topic, a devaluation was taking place. You have the debt of the Central Bank in Lebacs in pesos and one can say, Well, I discharged the debt from the Central Bank and transferred it to the Treasury. Yeah, but the Treasury takes it in dollars! Which means you are doing the most irrational thing you can do in a moment of crisis.: You have a debt in pesos and you are dollarizing it.

AS: Would inflation liquefy it??

Of course inflation is liquefying the debt in pesos. But precisely so that the forks are not damaged, The government ensures that the debt is dollarized or in adjustable pesos with an exchange rate clause.. What does this mean?. This means that if the peso is devalued against the dollar, this debt is adjusted by the exchange rate., which is the same, is to dollarize the debt. Nothing more than contributed in pesos and computed in dollars.

AS: This tentative debt increase figure that you mention?, does not yet contemplate the other disbursements that the Fund has to make with the agreement, but what he already did?

Clear, this taken according to what is perceived, what was really spent. But now that the new agreement has just been agreed, by which the number of 50.000 round to 57.100 millions of dollars, Not only is the amount increased but disbursements are brought forward. In such a way that in the year it is planned that the Monetary Fund will disburse them 13.400 millions more dollars and for next year another 22.800. Total 51.200 millions of dollars (counting the 15.000 already turned in June), between this year and next.

AS:Are there others left for him? 2020?

HG: For him 2020 there are some left 5.000 a thousand or so remaining (that in reality could only be disbursed in the 2021). It means that specifically, and this is the great mockery that I see and that has a political implication, This Macri government needs the money from the Fund to complete its mandate – because they said so:“this is what we need to get to 2019” – all the money is going to be spent and the next government is going to have to pay for it. This is a surreal thing from my point of view. You have to be very attentive. These are things that I have been observing, I analyzed facts, I do not make conjectures, but this is a reality. The political opposition has to give support to the government with the budget in Congress 2019 and it turns out that the budget is made in the image and likeness of the demands of the Monetary Fund. This means that whoever approves the budget validates all the numbers in the agreement with the Fund..

AS: Clear, The zero deficit is actually a big adjustment for workers…

HG: The budget 2019 with its adjustment it has a great equation for me. The equation is that an adjustment must be made on the fundamental basis of the decline in real wages in order to be able to pay more interest.. Because interests are growing in an astronomical way. The central government with the Treasury bills that it is placing, He is placing them between the between 50 Y 55 % annual interest. It is financial brutality!, and the Central Bank worse, is placing them 70%!. There is no public or private economy that can withstand this cost. It's a financial strangulation. No country in the world pays the extraordinary rates that Argentina pays. Our country is the financial paradise of the world.

AS:They say that if they don't do that the dollar would skyrocket?

HG: First and foremost, that interest rates rise to contain the dollar, Yes... but I always say that you have to understand the underlying financial problem. Let's see if I translate it well for you.. There are three key financial variables that are related to each other: the exchange rate, interest rate and inflation.
They are interrelated because if inflation is high, the interest rate is also high., or reciprocally, If the interest rate rises, it also affects prices.. And the exchange rate plays against the interest rate. The sea, that all this mixture exists. But the question I ask myself is:Which of the three variants rules and why??. Since it took office, this Macri government has a formal premise, govern with debt.
Although it has not been formulated in these terms, this is the only reality. Because the government has started from the basis that it had a fiscal deficit and it was going to cover the fiscal deficit with debt.. The sea, It's like the home economy: you have more expenses than income, You cover the difference that is the deficit by borrowing and not by printing money.. This was the government's great argument and it continues to support it until now.:“We have to go into debt to not issue money”. This has a very big conceptual trap. Because if necessary, if I issue money it is cheaper than taking on debt., because the money I issued did not pay interest, instead for the debt yes. And furthermore, I give rise to an entire institutional financial negotiation because the debt is lent by large international financial capitals, What are those who have caused this crisis?.

AS:How much do you estimate capital flight??

HG: With this crisis, the data that has been thrown away, although they are not official, is that the Central Bank so far this year has sold some 40 billion dollars. Of which it is assumed that the vast majority left the country. Others may be stored, as they say, in safe deposit boxes., on the mattress, whatever... but the data as of July passed the 30 billion. With this particularity, let it come in 14 Y 15 one billion had already left before the April crisis. and the 10, 15 remaining thousand left after the disbursement of the Fund. Therefore there is a very serious irregularity which is the following: that Caputo, who was in charge of the Central Bank after the looting that was done under the Sturzenegger administration (when the Lebacs snowball), during his 100 days of Caputo management, the 15 billion dollars lent by the Monetary Fund entered through one window and were sold through the other.
Under Caputo's management, the Central Bank sold $16 billion to the market and received 15.000 of the Monetary Fund. The sea, all the money was spent on supporting the exchange rate. This is capital flight. We are asking the Monetary Fund for money to sustain capital flight. It's a scandal, It is a quasi-criminal act.!.

AS: The carry trade business was already criminal…

HG: It's just now reproduced. That's why I talk about the three variables.. The variable that controls is the exchange rate, because as of the total public debt that the government has, 75%, three quarters of that debt is in foreign currency. Then the big dilemma arises.. The state collects in pesos. You have to reconvert those pesos into foreign currency to be able to pay, not the debt but the interest on that debt. Consequently, what the government is concerned about is having a stable dollar, as late as possible, so what I charge in pesos I can sell it or convert it into more dollars.

AS: You were telling me that the debt services in the budget were valued at 700 billion pesos?

For next year 2019 it is 750.000 million pesos at a dollar value of around $ 40. It is equivalent to about 19 approximately one billion dollars. But interests have been growing and this is not very clear now. Mira, expressed in dollars in the year 2016, Argentina paid some 10 billion dollars of interest. At 2017 the number rose to 14.000. This year they were planned 21 billion dollars and for next year they were “piously” talking about 15.000. But I say “piously” because with the extraordinary increase in interest rates to a 50% in pesos, a Letes capitalizable per month, the interest bill is skyrocketing astronomically. They no longer have much to do with the bill that the government has presented.

Therefore, it is not convincing that next year those payments will be made. 19 billion, which in fact are some 15.000 because the 4.000 remaining are capitalized by anatocism (some 160.000 millions of pesos). But 15 billion dollars – what are they 750.000 million pesos – it is the main item of public spending. The sea, while cackling about public spending, It is ignored that the main item of public spending and the main expenditure that causes the deficit is the interest on the debt..

As:But the interest is after the primary expenditure?

HG: In other words, the interest on the debt comes after what is considered the zero deficit.. There is a confusion there. Here when we talk about zero fiscal deficit we talk about fiscal deficit with primary spending. What is the difference? Primary fiscal expenditure is the expenditure that the government has in all areas, remunerations, consumption expenses, etc., including capital spending on public works, without counting the interest. When the interests of the total public expenditure are put for practical purposes, this is the deficit that is worth and is called the Financial Result., because it is your total debt. What you have to pay in total and what you need.
So, The primary fiscal deficit is taking the income and subtracting the expenses without computing interest. This is what you want to achieve 0 next year. It means that I have to tighten expenses and increase taxes enough to leave my primary spending balanced.. Because I have to pay more interest. So what is not said is that the primary fiscal deficit is going to be zero, because the total deficit is 600.000 millions of pesos, What are the interests that have to be paid? (the 750.000 less the 150-160 thousand that are capitalized by anatocism).

AS:on a national budget valued at how much money?

HG: It is in the order of three billion pesos in total (the current budget of the 2018). The sea, that the fiscal deficit – originally planned for more than 600.000 millions of pesos (now reduced in estimates to 400.000) – it would be a fifth of the total budget expenditure. We are talking about very high figures, figures very difficult to manage in practice. And pay attention to the issue because what was agreed with the monetary fund – as I said – is to reach primary fiscal balance!!
What does this mean? That income and expenses have to be leveled in order to be able to pay more interest that is computed later. Something like that, to put it graphically, Like you have a home economy and you earn well 100 but you spend 150 although, in brackets, those 150 What you spend is because of having to pay interest. You have a deficit left 50. You transform that into debt. In other words, you are capitalizing debt for interest. That is the perfect vicious circle of usury., because you have an unpayable debt.
That debt continues to grow. That creates more deficit. The deficit is covered with more debt. Debt produces more interest. So the fiscal deficit increases. And you cover that with more debt... And so on. This year 2018 They beat the country according to the budget 67 billion dollars of capital and not a cent of capital is paid. Every penny of capital that matures!, is refinanced and also takes 47 billion more dollars!
That what it means ? that when you see the budget, You see that this year's debt figure is going to be 113.000 millions of dollars. In pesos they are 2 trillion 200.000 millions of pesos, on average they are 6.000 million pesos per day. The minister of economy who has, be it Dujovne or another, every day it is renewing an average of $6.000 millions of pesos daily debt. But you don't pay the debt you refinance, what you pay is the interest. Good, The average daily interest is 1.100 millions of pesos. At the time the budget for the current year was made, that is, in October of last year, I did the calculation by show of hands: 1.100 million pesos per average day, It is equivalent to the financing of a fully equipped medium-complexity hospital. Ergo, what we pay in one day of interest would serve us to build a hospital. If you want I'll make it worse: If you lower it to an hourly average it gives you 46 million pesos per hour, almost 50. You have to build two and a half schools with what you pay in one hour of interest.

AS: What is the increase in the stock of debt in relation to GDP?

HG: GDP calculations are the most elastic there is. They range from 500 until the 640.000 millions of dollars. There is no good reference point… and I am talking about official figures. When you weigh the value in pesos, was in 10 trillions of pesos with the old exchange rate, I mean 640 billion dollars. It was a very high GDP. But now you devalued and you were left 350, 370.000 millions of dollars, there is no relationship.

AS: With the devaluation, do we have as much debt as GDP??

HG: Now we're quickly overtaking it, because before they boasted that the debt with respect to GDP did not reach 50%. They already recognize a 58% but at this moment it would be passing the 70% and speculation is that at this rate by the end of the year and the beginning of next year the debt-GDP would already be more than 100%. Because the debt is primarily in dollars and the GDP is converted from pesos to dollars. But there are no exact figures.

As: On whom is the adjustment of this policy discharged??

HG: It hits everything that is physical or real economy, especially what is a productive economy that suffers the impact of the financial economy. I always clarify that common people confuse because it is not explained to them that finance and economics are two different things.. They are governed by different criteria and logic. Because when you do a business, whatever, you take into account real factors,your investment, your market, your costs, etc.. On the other hand, when you reason financially, you do so by arbitrage between exchange rate gains and interest rates.. They are two different forms of reasoning.. The government through the debt system is imposing a total subordination of the physical economy to the financial economy. Because an interest rate of 70 a 74% annual is destructive for the economy for the simple reason that there is no more profitable economic alternative than putting it in Lebacs or Leliqs of the Central Bank.

AS: And yet this clearly recessive policy does not stop the wholesale inflation that is said to be the 55% accumulated…

HG:Well therein lies a trap.. We raise the interest rate to stop inflation, when the interest rate is also an inflation factor, as if the interest rate were neutral with respect to the market. On the contrary, I always say that it is one of the factors that hit the real economy the fastest and mercilessly.. Because let's be concrete, the merchant, the company, transfer those costs. The financial cost is the first that is transferred to the prices. If I am an SME or large company entrepreneur, I have a financial cost of the order of no less than 50%, If I want to take out a loan that is already stratospheric, yes I am going to deduct a check, If I am going to discount a document, they discount it to me 80, 90, until the 100%. That cost beyond how burdensome it is for the company and what it produces, the businessman transferred the prices. The sea, The interest rate is also a factor of inflation. That is why here we are facing a circular causation.
The government alleges – all the presidents of the Central Bank, now Sandleris, before it was Sturzenegger, Also Caputo – the whole discourse is that the Central Bank raises the interest rate to stop inflation, at the cost of recession. But still, apart from the cost, there are two traps at the same time. The first and main thing is that raising the interest rate feeds inflation, with which we are putting out the fire with gasoline. If I raise the interest rate and the interest rate is transferred to prices... then it will not help me stop inflation.
There it is revealed that the real reason for raising the interest rate is so that the pesos do not go to the dollar. They are two different things, because one thing is that I want to stop inflation, another thing is that it goes to the dollar. Because if the government stopped feeding that interest rate, the dollar would skyrocket, not only currency would go away, but in turn the devaluation is transferred to prices. And I believe that one of the dilemmas that this government has, in which you cannot get a foot on the ball is that. The Monetary Fund is putting pressure on the government to devalue, but at the same time control the transfer to devaluation prices. Because if it doesn't happen to you, how it happened to you in December of the year 2015, he barely assumed. do you remember? He made a macro devaluation of the 20 al 40%. At that time the crowing was the exchange delay of the Kirchner government, I think the dollar left 9 and peak to 14, more or less. But what happened? This devaluation was immediately transferred to prices. And the summer passed and in March 2016 we were back with an exchange delay problem. Clear, atraso cambiario quiere decir que vos tenes un dólar comparativamente barato, y por eso la gente viajaba al exterior, compraban en el exterior, gastaban con tarjeta.Todo eso no se produce espontáneamente por el mercado. Todo eso lo induce el gobierno.
Vos fijate la siguiente paradoja: todos estos neoliberales cacarean mucho sobre la no intervención del estado en la economía, pero son intervencionistas en las finanzas, porque le fijan una tasa de interés altísima. Eso lo rige el estado. Vos estás llamando a capitales para que vengan atrayéndolos con una tasa de interés alta:“vengan que acá les pagamos las tasas más altas del mundo”. Entonces eso es del Estado, eso es intervencionismo del Estado. Una cosa es que el capital extranjero, aun especulativo, entre para colocarse a tasa que pagan en el mercado corriente, otra cosa es que sea el propio Estado, el Banco Central el que paga esas tasas, el que lidere ese negociado financiero. Esto es lo que ha hecho el gobierno. Vino a gobernar con deuda llevando la deuda del Tesoro, en dos años y medio de gestión, aumentándola en 140 O 150.000 millones de dólares y la deuda paralela del Banco Central la multiplicó por 5. El licenciado Sturzenegger recibió un stock de Lebacs de 346.000 millions of pesos, que ya eran importantes en esa época de kirchnerismo y los llevó a 1 billion 500.000 millions of pesos, o sea la multiplicó por 5.Y eso Macri lo hizo, no fue ninguna herencia.

AS: ¿es lo que ahora se fue a Letes?

HG:Ni siquiera se fue a Letes. Acá hubo un cambio que yo ahora estoy analizando. El argumento era efectivamente ese: la deuda que está en el Banco Central saquémosla al Banco Central, pasémosela al Tesoro. Bueno son otra ventanilla del gobierno pero termina pagando igual. A su vez el Banco Central elevó la tasa de interés al 70-74%, pero no conforme con eso fue peor. Porque la bola de nieve de las Lebac en realidad no desapareció. Se convirtió en Leliq que son Lebac a 7 days. The sea, estamos peor porque gobierno está trasladando Lebacs del Banco Central que son en promedio 30 días y pagan el 60%, y las está convirtiendo en la Leliqs qué son Lebac a 7 días y pagan el 70%.

AS: ¿o sea que la inestabilidad financiera es total?

HG: Es total. Estamos acelerando el perfil de vencimientos, estamos transformando deuda y eso está en el Banco Central. Vos agarras el balancete semanal del Banco Central y encontrás con que sí, medidos en mayo y julio de este año era 1 billion 300.000 millions. Ahora habría descendido 850 thousand. Yes, pero cuando vas a fijarte cómo es la composición te encontrás con que de los 850, some 300.000 han quedado en Lebacs pero los otros 500.000 o más, están ahora en la Leliqs. The sea, que te estas estrangulando financieramente. Estás pasando deuda que paga un 60% promedio y es a 30 días y la estás convirtiendo en deuda que paga el 74 % a 7 days. Por lo que el negocio financiero se potencia, porque esas Lebacs reinvertidas cada 7 días te dan una tasa, lo que se llama la tasa efectiva, que es como plazo fijo que vos en lugar de retirar intereses, al vencimiento lo recolocas con el monto de los intereses,entonces lo vas capitalizando. That, que es la medida en tasa efectiva, pasa el 100 %. Porque claro, si el capital financiero que ha entrado de vuelta convirtiéndose de dólares a pesos y colocándose en Leliqs, vos lo vas a recolocar todas las semanas, como están haciendo los capitales financieros, estás sosteniendo tasas de locura en la Argentina.

AS: ¿o sea aumentado la dinámica de la bicicleta financiera que ya existía?

HG: Yes, sí… con el agravante de que esto lo hicieron fondos de inversión especulativos amigos del gobierno. Esto lo lideró la banca Morgan Stanley, que empieza con la salida de Lebacs yéndose a los dólares, que es lo que hizo la banca Morgan el 25 last april, cuando en un solo día el Banco Central vendió 1742 millions of dollars. La mayoría los compró la Banca Morgan Stanley que compró dólares y los sacó del país. En ese momento el dólar estaba a $20.

AS: Con este cuadro que describís ¿Va a estallar la economía del país?

HG: Algunas especulaciones me exceden. Yo creo que en lo inmediato Macri está aguantado por la reunión del G20 en noviembre. Esto es lo que dice gente ligada al gobierno o a Cambiemos que dicen que sería un papelón mayúsculo, que se les destape la crisis política en un momento previo a la reunión del tan mentado G20.No se sabe qué puede pasar a partir de diciembre, pero se ha especulado con la renuncia de Macri y la constitución de un gobierno de coalición para completar el mandato.Hasta ahora los poderes financieros internacionales lo están bancando y sosteniendo. Si el Fondo Monetario no le hubiera otorgado un préstamo de 50, now 57.000 millones de dólares ¿de qué se disfrazaba el presidente Macri? De ahí que al gobierno toda su estabilidad financiera y política depende del apoyo que le da el Fondo Monetario y dentro del Fondo Monetario con el apoyo de gobierno norteamericano. Qué es quién sostiene con su apoyo dentro y fuera del Fondo al gobierno Macri. Esto es público y notorio. Además lo reflejan los diarios, el presidente Macri habló con el presidente Trump y éste le dijo que lo apoya. Lo que quiere decir que lo están bancando, porque si se cortará ese flujo el gobierno cae.
Hay que ser preciso en esto ¿cuál es el rol del Fondo Monetario, que no es filantrópico y esa ayuda es altísima? El Fondo Monetario interviene generalmente cuando hay situaciones críticas a pedido de los acreedores financieros del Estado, para que el Estado – en este caso el Estado Argentino, no le interrumpa el flujo de pago de los intereses a los acreedores.
Entonces el rol del FMI es prestarle a la Argentina para que la Argentina no le corte el pago de los intereses a los acreedores. The sea, que la ayuda no es al país, es a los a los acreedores del país. Porque caso contrario lo que la Argentina tendría que hacer es blanquear el default.Un deudor que no puede pagar un centavo de capital y que ya ni siquiera puede pagar la totalidad de los intereses. Un gobierno que está reconociendo que no puede llegar a cumplir el mandato si no es con la ayuda extraordinaria del préstamo más grande que recibió en la historia de la Argentina y en la historia del Fondo Monetario Internacional, récord del mundo, 57 billion dollars, una cifra que equivale a un presupuesto nacional
Eso quiere decir que todo esto descansa en la ficción que el país puede controlar su deuda pública. Lo cual es mentira no porque puede controlarla. Por eso hasta el mismo premio Nobel Stiglitz ha dicho que la Argentina va inexorablemente hacia un nuevo megacanje, una nueva reestructuración de deuda. Otro megacanje más, porque esto es cíclico. El país se endeuda irresponsablemente hasta el punto que no da más la situación, ya no puede pagar los intereses. Good, entonces en ese momento hay que hacer algo. En ese momento entrar en las negociaciones y después vendemos a la opinión pública la imagen de que a través de negociaciones supuestamente exitosas el país ha podido refinanciar la deuda. Es así desde los acuerdos de Nueva York de Alfonsín de 1985-1987, el plan Brady menemista 1992-1993, el mismo megacanje Kirchner-Lavagna del 2005-2010, antes el megacanje Cavallo- De la Rúa del 2001 y ahora se va a un nuevo megacanje, que probablemente este gobierno trata de patearlo para que lo tenga que hacer el gobierno que viene.

AS: ¿Pero si las condiciones para el pago de la deuda ahora son leoninas, para un nuevo megacange van a ser mucho más duras todavía?

HG: El objetivo sería estabilizar la situación para encarar ese nuevo megacanje, algo que ya está ocurriendo. Porque si vos analizas que está haciendo el Fondo Monetario, le está dando a la Argentina un préstamo puente. Está aguantando la situación. Ahora un detalle sobre el que nadie a dicho media palabra ¿cómo se va a poder pagar al Fondo Monetario este préstamo?Porque esta no es una cifra irrelevante. Según las condiciones de pago, cuando el Fondo Monetario termina su desembolso creo que el país está comprometido a devolver en 8 cuotas trimestrales el total del préstamo.¡estamos a años luz de que la Argentina pueda devolver esa plata!
Entonces se va a dar esta paradoja. Esta burla de que el gobierno pide un préstamo extraordinario para poder completar su mandato, se gasta todo el dinero para aguantar su estabilidad y lo tiene que pagar el gobierno que viene. Eso es lo que explica que uno los candidatos alternativos, Massa, haya tirado ya la idea de que el gobierno que viene va a tener que renegociar el convenio con el Fondo.

AS: ¿Cristina dice que pagó 195 billion dollars?

En Naciones Unidas en setiembre del año 2014 ella habló de que la Argentina era pagadora serial, que había pagado 190.000 millones dólares. En un discurso en agosto de ese mismo año había hablado de 174.000. Aclaremos algo, las cifras no son reales, no es dinero realmente pagado. Lo que se pagó fueron los intereses, que pueden estar entre 50 Y 70.000 millions of dollars, que no es una cifra menor, pero no una cifra de ese orden tan alto que citó la ex presidenta.
Después la gran crítica al kirchnerismo es que el kirchnerismo vendió la imagen del desendeudamiento, cuando en realidad la deuda estaba aumentando. Porque la deuda con el kirchnerismo aumentó unos cien mil millones dólares en los 12 años de gestión. Recibió el Estado con una deuda de 150 mil millones de dólares y lo dejó en 254.000.
The sea 254 mil millones a fin del gobierno de Cristina. Now 340 mil millones oficial al 30 of June, más bonos y el préstamo con el Fondo. A fin de año la deuda podría llegar cerca de los 400 mil millones de dólares a este ritmo.
Otro argumento que da el kirchnerismo es que achico la deuda externa al trasladar gran parte de la deuda externa a deuda interna. Así se le pagó privilegiadamente a los acreedores externos a costa de deuda inter-estado.¿Qué quiere decir?Se sacó plata del Banco Central, del Banco Nación, de la ANSES de los jubilados, etc. Lo cual es un favor muy relativo, porque por un lado, se descargó deuda con los acreedores externos, pero queda la deuda interna que a su vez empezó a licuar, como la plata de los jubilados, junto a dolarizar como la deuda Banco Central. Por lo cual en definitiva el famoso argumento del desendeudamiento fue un gran negocio para los acreedores externos. Definitely, en lugar de cuestionar la legitimidad de los pagos, en lugar de mantener una situación de tensión, fue al revés. Se le fue cumpliendo religiosamente. Y peor todavía si contamos que se le pagaban cupones PBI que estaban calculados sobre un PBI inflado. The sea, se los estaba beneficiando. No hay que confundir, porque ahora el kirchnerismo trata de presentarse como haber sido la alternativa de un sistema, cuando ellos fueron parte del sistema.
Para ir concluyendo te repito la Argentina está metida en una trampa de la deuda perpetua.¿Qué quiere decir esto? Que ha tomado y toma deuda por montos impagables. Montos sin incapacidad de repago alguna. Para eso acepta pagar cada vez más intereses, tasas más caras ya que hay un mayor riesgo de default. Whereby, si vos aumentas tu deuda en estas condiciones nunca vas abaratar el costo de los intereses. Entonces la gran ecuación que se está implementando ahora es ésta: como hay que pagar más intereses hay que hacer más ajustes. ¿cómo se hace el ajuste?Primero podando los gastos presupuestarios, empezando por licuar y bajar el costo de mano de obra que son las remuneraciones del Estado.
Quizás el caso más flagrante que se vio en la Nación y las Provincias es el caso paradigmático de los docentes de la provincia de Buenos Aires. Está perfectamente claro que se quiere imponer a todo en estamento del sector público aumentos inferiores a la inflación, es decir bajar los sueldos a la gente. Lo mismo ha hecho con los jubilados.Es un escándalo, los jubilados deberían haber percibido un 12% en marzo y percibieron 5.7 % por la reforma previsional de diciembre. Una reforma que es legal en ese momento aunque cuestionada ante la Justicia. Hay que tener en cuenta un factor importante y es que pese a que el Gobierno Macri no tiene mayoría parlamentaria, está teniendo una importantísima ayuda legislativa. Primero por una parte del peronismo que le hace el juego y después, no hay que olvidarse que aquí hay un socio callado del gobierno que es clave en todo esto que es el radicalismo. Porque el radicalismo es aliado del gobierno y lo es tanto en forma parlamentaria como por haberle dado la infraestructura de comités provinciales que el Pro no tenía, ya que no era un partido de manejo nacional.
La media sanción en Diputados era necesaria porque necesitan que el Senado lo apruebe en un tratamiento exprés durante la primera quincena deNoviembre. Esta vez adelantaron su tratamiento para cumplir con las exigencias del Fondo. He 26 de octubre se reunió el directorio y aprobó los desembolsos pendientes.

AS: ¿Cómo se va a trasladar a los precios?

En este momento nadie habla del despropósito del pago de los intereses. Siguen cacareando con el problema del gasto público, pero omiten decir que el principal gasto público son los intereses. Que esta cuenta astronómica, que está creciendo en forma incontrolable, es la causa de la crisis que estamos viviendo. Qué es por culpa de subir la tasa de interés, que está ocurriendo esta recesión. Yo creo que el gobierno busca desesperadamente cumplir que no se traslade a los precios la devaluación del peso, o que si se traslada sea en una proporción menor. Parece que el Fondo piensa que se podría dar un traslado a los precios de la devaluación del peso contra el dólar del orden del 20, máximo 30%.
Pero si se traslada todo a precios la macro devaluación fue en balde, todo este esquema se le viene abajo y ese es el tema que para mí el gobierno todavía no puede garantizar. La inflación mayorista le está dando la pauta y es justamente la que responde al tipo de cambio. Esa inflación mayorista se le traslada a los precios. Con el nivel de precios de 6,5 % en Setiembre y en Octubre del 5 al 6%, que son el producto de traslado a precios del dólar a través de los precios mayoristas. Ese es para mí el mayor interrogante que existe. Porque si el gobierno no logra frenar ese traslado a precios toda la macrodevaluación fue al cohete.
AS:¿Estamos al borde de la macro devaluación?

Puede darse una hiperinflación como resultado de ese descontrol en el tipo de cambio y el traslado a precios y cuando el gobierno no está haciendo nada para contenerla. Por eso la clave la ecuación es que esto se logra, como lo está logrando el gobierno a costa de la caída de los salarios reales, que son la variable de ajuste. Tienen que estrangular la demanda, bajan los salarios reales a la gente para estrangular el consumo y de esa manera producen economías públicas y privadas y tratan de contener la expansión monetaria.
Ahora lo están haciendo a un costo altísimo e irracional porque en ningún país del mundo se está aplicando una política de tan altísimas tasas de interés como la Argentina. Estamos frente a un juego de suma cero. Quiere decir que gana un sector o pierde otro, mientras el salario real pierde día a día su valor carcomido por la inflación. Fíjate la paradoja que mientras los salarios caen el capital financiero lucra cada día más con esa caída. Ahí está perfectamente clara la ecuación. Como es el costo laboral decreciente que tienen las empresas porque se le van licuando los gastos de remuneraciones y como paralelamente se le va potenciando la rentabilidad financiera. Es por desgracia la ecuación de cómo las finanzas destruyen la economía.

He interviewed Gustavo Giménez

Hector Giuliano: Licenciado en Administración especializado en finanzas públicas. Autor del libro “Problemática de la Deuda Pública Argentina”. Este libro de diez tomos es la compilación de todos los trabajos del autor. Es un resumen de la historia financiera de la deuda pública desde la crisis del 2001 hasta la actualidad. Están ordenados secuencialmente mis distintos trabajos que tocan los distintos temas que intervienen en la problemática de la deuda pública, toda la cuestión del Banco Central y una serie de temas conexos.

reproduced from Anticapitalist Network

Nov 5, 2018