Argentina: National Political Panorama. Under the sign of uncertainty
The situation that Argentina is going through presents novel elements in terms of the political map. The shocks of the regime of coalitions that polarized in the last 15 years the country is a central data. The evolution of the Milei phenomenon and its perspective. The debacle of national capitalism as the material basis of the social state of mind and the crisis of expectations on a mass scale as a gravitating factor. In this overall picture, We present the challenges for the revolutionary left and the FIT Unit in the next stage.
Writes: Mariano Rosa
The situation in our country begins to show some of the most marked features of the global and Latin American panorama. Global and regional trends, are accentuated beyond the logical national particularities. If we were to synthesize the elements with the greatest weight, in the current table we could enumerate several.
Jump in the structural economic crisis. It has at this point a chronic nature, without possibilities of reformist exit, ni moderada, down the "broad avenue in the middle of capitalism". This model requires a shock of anti-worker bourgeois measures, for its stabilization. Structural Reactionary Changes. The impossibility of achieving it for those above, for now, provokes strategic concern in the bourgeoisie.
Irruptions from below in the process of class struggle. There is no general overflow in the workers' struggles, popular or juvenile: the bureaucratic leaderships of the labor movement, in particular, they block that possibility. But the episode of the drivers of La Matanza, installs a type of irruption of protests from the base, that locally overflow, and they show radicalism, i hate the regime, to businessmen, crisis with the treacherous trade unionism and the "make them all go away" appears. And once again the working class shows its character as a key subject: two days of protest, gravitated more than any social sector in the global situation. makes the analysis, to the orientation and to the policy of the whole for the left.
Escalation of crisis in the political regime. After the 2001 and the implosion of traditional bipartisanship, appears first with Kirchnerism and then with PRO and JxC, a new bourgeois device that are the «coalitions»: a regime of coalitions. No chance of party hegemony, there is a regrouping of what was left of the traditional post-2001 parties, and thus majority coalitions were structured. Both, they are very bad. the one that governs, has a bad electoral prognosis, the main opponent, does not process its orientation tensions for what is coming, and is "losing oil". And appears, for the first time, strongly after the 2001, a scheme of "thirds" with Milei and the libertarian current carving in the situation.
mass irritability. The social temperature does not stop growing. The mood is one of irritation, it feeds on material conditions. (poverty, inflation, and crisis of expectation). In a year where the thermometer of that state of mind is the elections, Milei appears as the most dynamic catalyst phenomenon, as an expression of the "angry vote".
Right-wing of the capitalist political agenda. The shift to the right in the profile and program of the political forces of the regime deepens. Strategically, They are bearers of a mandate from the big bourgeoisie (corporations, banks, in half) and imperialism: war plan against the working class and the people, to lower the price of wages, adjust social spending and eradicate rights. Under, There are social sectors that, in some stripes due to lack of a clear and powerful exit on the left, confusedly attuned to the "anti-political" rhetoric or seduced by Milei's "dollarizing" preaching, which is associated with anti-inflationary stability. They are confusing and disputed transitions, typical of periods of acute crisis. It is part of a polarization, which has dynamically on the other side, a factor of accumulated force in the mass movement that places limits on the strategic war plan of the capitalists. In this tension and its outcome, non-electoral, but in the class struggle the perspective of the next stage in the country is at stake.
Definitely, the dominant trend such as uncertainty in all fields, due to economic instability, due to the limits that the relationship of forces places on the bourgeois plan, by the erosion of the majority coalitions and by the action of the mass movement. So, the central thing is to elaborate hypothetical scenarios to define the possible field of action from the left. The FIT Unit, who electorally had a first test last Sunday in Neuquén, Rio Negro and Trelew, showed that there is a conquered space of political representation, still small but important as an accumulation for what is to come. The benches in the Neuquén Legislature and in the Deliberative Council of the decisive Capital of that province, the results in Rio Negro (especially the 6 % in Bariloche, that puts the FIT Unit in the race to enter a Councilor for the first time in the history of that city), are important landmarks. Each bench as a post for political struggle against the entire regime and from there, strengthening the independent action of the working class, women, youth and poor people, These are achievements that we must take advantage of to organically strengthen the implementation, to start from our MST in workplaces, study, neighborhoods and social movements.
The decline of Argentine capitalism
The Argentine capitalist economy has been shaping up in recent years a kind of strategic bourgeois consensus around various elements or features. Let's say what, with more progressive or more right-wing rhetoric, all the traditional political currents of weight hold as horizon:
Inflation adjustment. The devaluations "recommended" by the IMF accelerate it and put the situation to the limit. that mechanism, added to the parasitic behavior of the big price makers, they place inflation in spiral dynamics.
social regressivity. This is what some economists and sociologists call the nature of a capitalism that concentrates social wealth at the steepest apex of the bourgeoisie and flattens the income of the working class.. like never in the last 80 years, a significant part of the registered salaried mass, is below the poverty indicators. The composition of the working class occupied today has a third registered in white, a third precarious under temporary contract forms and another third in the informal sector. The living conditions of the workers are plummeting month by month and this is incubating very strong tensions.
Structural social inequality. 40% of poor (era 4% in 1975). 10% destitute. Those numbers go up to 55% if we measure it in the segment of children under 14 years. That chronic panorama is lapidary. Simultaneously, the policy of transferring resources to the big bourgeoisie was reinforced by the Massa administration at the worst social moment in the country: the soybean dollar 1 Y 2, cost almost 700 billion pesos. The «silver» model capitalism is Hood Robin: expropriates the poor, to transfer to the rich.
Reprimarization as a productive matrix. In this point, all fractions of the bourgeoisie agree. We denounce it as extractivism, that is to say, appeal as a «model» of insertion in the world capitalist division of labor, the supply of common goods or natural resources, como commodities: military, Dead cow, lithium, waterways. Neocolonial looting as a strategy. A kind of "Roca-Runciman pact" 21st century version.
With that general frame, the photo of the current economy has all the variables for a heart attack. The IMF roadmap, of adjustment to pay debt -which is the basis of the failure of the FdT, that subordination boot-, is liquefying all the political capital of the ruling party. And it's grinding hard, Massa's "natural" candidacy because he fails to calm the situation and adds contradictions. There is panic or at least a strong concern of the capitalists because they know that, for medium-term stabilization, there is a structural shock, that does not happen without a clash of planets in the streets. The imperialist line is to push Massa to do all the dirty work now to pave the way for a next government that doesn't have everything to start with..
Crisis of expectation and the third in discord: update of the political regime
The majority capitalist political forces are experiencing an unprecedented “deliberative” state. The basis is the crisis of hegemony that manifests itself not only in FdT but also in JvC. The ruling party suffers an electoral base bleeding because the balance of the voters starts from the economy and it is a disaster. And the route they are following is the script of the co-government with the IMF. So, in a sea of uncertainties, The strongest piece of information seems to be a resounding defeat of the ruling party at the national level. Because, the operation "cry" by CFK, that is why the doubts of whether or not she is going as a candidate. Everything is possible, kickback and emergency. The episode "drivers - Berni" turned on the alarm lights in the Frenteto camp: the political crisis escalated to the point of raising questions about the electoral future in the province of Buenos Aires, until now, "refuge" of Kirchnerism in its operational "withdrawal" in the face of an eventual defeat in the presidential elections. Now, it's all in question.
In JvC that appeared as the logical depositary of discontent, the default winner, There are problems, there is no political unit and they begin to pay for that in the polls. to get started, the dispute of the fractions Macri-Bullrich vs.. Larreta-UCR-Carrió, it has to do not so much with the class strategy, but with the rhythms of application of that program: the shock proposed by Macri-Bullrich, has the limits of social power relations that appear again and again. So, there are sectors of the bourgeoisie behind each "tactical wing" of JxC that bet on different orientations. Larreta is no less reactionary, but it seems to read differently the chances of being able to apply a program of frontal shock against the workers and the people. in that scenario, Milei appears capitalizing on the anger, the discontent and the crisis of expectations with the majority coalitions so far. It is the "third party" of the political camp of the capitalists.
He factor of Mercy
to get started, as analysis, The fact about Milei is that she confusedly capitalizes on anger, although it also reflects elements of the right-wing of social sectors. There are two flagship concepts that shake to exhaustion: «caste» and «dollarization». The first, sends and channels the anger. It is so. But, the second, "dollarization" sensitizes in the social imaginary a programmatic measure that is mainly associated with stability. The dollar is saving, is the currency that is worth the most, It is what in political discourse always appears as "the most precious thing and what must be sought". That is to say: channel a mood, and an aspiration for stability that is not chemically pure, but that eats of the disappointment of the less politicized electoral base of the FdT and also, of middle sectors that have already had an experience with JxC. Obviously, adds to the anti-caste political rhetoric, to non-politicized sectors of youth. That, it is also hard fact.
Nevertheless, Milei is not the priority bet of the big bourgeoisie for an electoral change. They leveraged it in the media at first, to force a calendar shift to the right, install topics, taboo topics, but now they are worried. They know that what Milei says she is going to do can end in a social disaster in the streets: there are reserves of struggle accumulated in the people of our country, there is an implantation of the left in various sectors of the mass movement, that would cause a head-on collision with a direct attack like the one threatened by the "liberfache". All this being said, as in any crisis by definition, there are imponderables, We cannot rule out that Milei will reach a ballotage and even win. In the debacle of the political regime and capitalism, everything is possible. What is for us another definition, is that eventually a government of Milei would be a transitory station for the accumulated anger, since economic or social aspirations, that can even lead to voting for him, they have no chance of being resolved by a program of war capitalism like that of this bizarre character.
Playing with fire: grassroots tendencies in the process of class struggle
It's without doubt that, in a year with such an election calendar, there is a logical mediation between consciousness and the collective state of mind, and direct actions. In fact, due to the crisis of the national coalitions that do not claim to win, the provincial fiefdoms were defining their own calendars to ensure the continuity of privileges and impunity. Both, that election route, has the purpose of channeling social trends in this way: let it be the vote that defines, with all the distortion that it has, and not the streets. To strengthen that device, of "punish voting", and not fighting, there is the union bureaucracy that buried the possibility of a general strike and unified actions of the labor movement, which is the one that can drag all the sectors attacked by the capitalist adjustment. Nevertheless, evidently, the depth of the economic wounds, suffering and anger, they don't expect any elections, nor general strikes to express themselves when they find a channel. The irruption of the drivers of La Matanza showed it, but before it had been the cuts of neighbors due to the collapse of EDESUR in the middle of the heat wave, or the neighborhood self-organization that burned drug bunkers in Rosario, or the nursing action in CABA, of the neighborhood Health Centers on strike and mobilization for a salary cut. To this, important provincial struggles with the same character of "irruptions" would have to be added. They are anticipatory symptoms of the country we are going to. They are trends that incubate prospects for the near future. Perhaps a general escalation before STEP is not most likely., but beware: a resounding defeat of the ruling party, an out of control situation in the economy can end in any scenario. and eventually, the government that assumes the right, trying to apply "shock" doctrine, can open a stage to "France". There is accumulation in our town for that. This preparatory transit then, poses for the revolutionary left, be the front line in every fight, for his triumph, coordination with others and at the same time, to contribute so that the best of this activism militates for an anti-capitalist and socialist solution, how we lift from the MST in the FIT Unit. For the triumph of each just claim and the political-militant development of a left that prepares for the decisive battles that are coming. with that orientation, the strategic priority goes through the actions and fights of the working class.
The challenges for a left with a vocation for majorities
The entire context that we were presenting in this article leads to the subject of themes: the policy and orientation to strengthen the FIT Unit, from our MST. to get started, respond in all fields: the class struggle, priority, being at the foot of the canyon in each claim to win, and at the same time, always with the objective of strengthening the organic and militant implantation in each claim process, and the general influence of the left through our party.
On the other hand, This coordinate has to include the electoral struggle in a combined way in a scenario that is still not entirely clear.. We think of a type of political campaign that reinforces the ideological confrontation against the expressions of the right that are preparing to govern. At the same time that we explain the basis of the failure of the FdT to interact with sectors of its more progressive base and even self-perceived left. Not by chance, Grabois's candidacy appears in the landscape of the FdT: the very old – and failed- thesis of "fighting inside"-, and renounce the measures of structural changes that are needed, for a program of tepid possibility. It is an attempt to contain in the fold of that armed group the most critical and disenchanted sectors of the conservative course and applicator of the adjustment of the IMF of the ruling party. Hence the low-level accusations of the pope's friend to "Trotskyism that has no vocation for power". That Sancho barks, because this Trotskyism that he attacks -poorly-, It looks like he's riding.
We have to face a revolutionary use of electoral activity, reaching thousands with our proposals and background proposals, featuring our top national spokespersons, Cele Fierro and Alejandro Bodart (pre-candidates for president and vice, by the MST) and Vilma Ripoll, as well as the provincial figures that our strength counts: Deputy Luciana Echevarría in Córdoba, Nadia Burgos, the main reference of the left in Entre Ríos, Jimena Sosa in Santa Fe, the brand new councilor Priscilla Ottón in Neuquén, and many others in the set of all our national development. Why, although the global electoral result that we can have remains to be seen - and that, in the end it's random, it is clear that the revolutionary left has roots in important sectors of the mass movement in Argentina. from our vision, charged with the task of accumulating organic political force and general influence with very anti-capitalist and socialist positions, since the next stage, beyond the electoral, will be defined in our most favorable field: the class struggle.
Inside the FIT Unit there are controversies, important differences and nuances based on a very solid program and principles that give foundation to the coalition. Our party permanently insists on the need to give it another flight, another volume and a nature in front, that exceeds the electoral: We insist on setting up a unitary anti-capitalist and socialist political movement, that can intervene jointly in the general political process, in the labor movement, youth and class struggle. That can combine unity of program and principles, with diversity of trends within, that we debate, let us decide and process all the action of that armed group in a democratic way, by the base, giving channels of participation to thousands of activists who today have the FIT Unit almost exclusively, as an electoral option.
This debate is not secondary: the preparation of an alternative that aspires to gain mass influence, and carve in the general situation, requires boldly provoking changes in the character of the coalition we form. We will continue to bring this point of view to the broad spectrum of supporters and voters of the front, as well also, to sectors of the disenchanted base of the FdT.
A FIT Unit without forced hegemonism, that defines the representation of its public spokespersons, from organic development, militant, national extension and implantation of each force, in addition to the public presence or in social networks of some figures. The above includes, our vindication of the role as a weighty social actor in the most popular neighborhoods of the independent piquetero movement, in the face of a certain denialist underestimation that exists in some organizations of the front. The integrality of these factors makes the influence and real strength of each party. This is how the MST sees it.
Because, it would be important and necessary, promote an open instance of debate from the FIT-U to address the set of these issues that make up the strategy, as well as the present tasks to face in a united front. A meeting of democratic deliberation, brotherly clash of opinions, for a superior synthesis.
and in the immediate, We have a very important common call. May 1st, international day of struggle of the working class, We meet again in Plaza de Mayo and in all the squares of the country. So that the anti-capitalist left, socialist and internationalist, build tribunes to denounce the ongoing capitalist war plan, so that the main worker and popular struggles of the country can be expressed, and to present the terms of a way out for the underdogs in this country.
