Iran-Middle East: Trump declared victory, but the war continues

Trump announced that the war was “almost over” but Iran continues firing missiles and, Both the Strait of Hormuz and the entire region have become an unstable and explosive zone. Imperialism has not achieved its initial objective of quickly overthrowing the Ayatollah regime, The political situation is complicated by the current political criticisms, the uncertainties in perspective and the damage that the war adventure is already causing in the global capitalist economy. Workers should not pay the consequences of Trump and Netanyahu's war. A unitary movement is needed against imperialist aggression against Iran, Palestine, Venezuela, Cuba and other peoples of the world.

Trump has already declared victory, but the war is getting out of hand

Trump presented the victory over Iran practically as a fait accompli. As stated, The attacks have already destroyed a large part of its military capabilities, the navy, communication systems, part of its air force and projectile launching platforms. Although he has received hard blows, Iran continues launching missiles and drones against Israeli targets, US military bases and allied positions in the East, like in the Arab Emirates, Qatar, Arabia Saudi, Bahrain and Kuwait. While Trump has assured about the Iranian counterattacks that"no one expected that" new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains defiant.

Washington's proclamation of victory is an attempt to reassure the North American electorate in the face of the November elections and the international markets over which the prospect of a global recession hovers if the war continues.. The imperialist offensive faces increasing difficulties, gets bogged down, becomes more complex and increasingly opens up more questions about his departure, which is a reflection of the “Trump style” of aggression, without clear objectives or oversizing the ability to achieve them with resounding successes.

First goal not achieved and growing problems

US intelligence has stated that the Iranian regime is not on the brink of collapse because the political and military leadership remains in place., maintains control of the country and there are no signs of an imminent fall of the political system. The bombings did not generate an internal fracture or an uprising that would overthrow the government, that is still working and supported, largely out of anti-U.S. nationalist sentiment. THE. and Israel.

Trump would have to escalate the war, even with a ground intervention to overthrow the regime, which would imply a longer conflict, expensive and risky, like those that ended in defeats for the US. THE. in Vietnam and Afghanistan; which would exacerbate great economic and political instability in its own regional partners who do not want a long war. You could also continue bombing without trying to change the regime, seeking to weaken Iranian military capabilities, or seek a negotiated solution, although at the moment he has only spoken of “unconditional surrender”. The initial calculation of EE. THE. to launch an attack and quickly provoke a regime change has not materialized, and begins to enter into a conflict that is increasingly complicated and difficult to control..

In this problematic framework for EE. THE. was forced to authorize until 11 April the purchase of Russian oil that is already loaded on ships in transit, with the aim of avoiding an even greater rise in crude oil prices. Thus part of the Russian oil returns to the international market despite the sanctions imposed after the war in Ukraine. The measure generated strong criticism in Europe, because it implies a strengthening of the Russian economy that carries out the invasion of Ukraine and favors Putin's policy. Of course, Added to all this is the internal situation of the United States.. THE. where there is a great revulsion to presidential politics and also rejection of war.

Increasingly involved

Israel attacks Lebanon, NATO intercepted and shot down an Iranian missile flying over Türkiye, The EU debates how to position itself and Putin makes political balance. There are more and more actors involved in the war scene.

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, adopted a tough stance against Iran, marking a shift toward a more confrontational foreign policy. On the other hand, the president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, defended the need to preserve a rules-based international order and expressed reservations about the hardening of European foreign policy.

Putin is also in a complicated situation from a geopolitical point of view. Russia maintains a strategic relationship with Iran, country with which it has cooperated in military and security fields, but their real support capacity in this war is limited. According to information cited by US authorities, Moscow would have helped Iran locate some US military targets, although this does not change the conflict nor does it imply direct intervention. At the same time, Putin talks with Trump about the war in Ukraine and its eventual development.

Netanyahu advocates continuing the war until the Iranian regime falls to eliminate his main regional opponent and advance the strengthening of the historic Zionist project of “Greater Israel.”

The available weapons, a fact in question

Trump boasts of “unlimited” imperialist capacity, although The Washington Post reported that there were concerns about this and that the Pentagon spent approximately 5.600 millions of dollars in ammunition alone during the first two days of the conflict.  Meanwhile, Iranian authorities maintain they still have military capacity to respond.  And Zionist authorities say they plan to intensify operations against Iran's military and missile infrastructure., which implies that the army considers that it has the necessary military means to sustain the campaign for weeks.

It is a fact that EE. THE. is the main military power in the world and that Iranian capacity has been affected, but the true dimension of the damage and weapons availability remain in the realm of speculation., ultimately, “All war is based on deception”¹ and this is no exception.

The Strait of Hormuz at the center of the confrontation

One of the nerve centers of war actions has been located in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, where waters are mined and ships sink: Iran blocks the passage and the US. THE. intends to reopen it. Imperialism is pressuring its allies to send ships to escort oil tankers and reopen the maritime passage. Nevertheless, EU governments are divided, Some have made it clear that they do not consider the conflict with Iran their own war or a NATO mission, although they are also studying expanding or modifying a naval mission to reopen the strait of the Iranian blockade. Trump's problems in the Strait reach such a point that he has asked China for help and has considered suspending his trip to that country if it does not collaborate..

The shock wave of war adventure

When conflict interrupts or threatens the flow of oil through Hormuz, International prices skyrocket and this increase is quickly transferred to gasoline, transport, heating and electricity. In the first days of the war, gas prices in Europe rose sharply and oil rose to levels close to or above 100 dollars per barrel at times, fueling inflationary pressures throughout the region. For the workers, This means a general increase in the cost of life and a serious warning of rising inflation due to the increase in prices and the loss of purchasing power due to the devaluation of salaries..  

For the defeat of the US. THE. and Israel

We condemn the aggressions of imperialist-Zionists against Iran, Lebanon, Palestine and other Middle Eastern countries. Iran has the right to defend itself and counterattack using all means at its disposal.. In this context, We reaffirm in its entirety the Resolution of the International Socialist League (LIS) Hands Off Iran! For the defeat of the US. THE. and the zionist war! We repudiate governments, institutions and political leaderships that align with imperialism, both in the West and in the Middle East itself. We call to promote a broad unitary movement that promotes mobilizations, boycotts, workers strikes and other actions to fight against imperialist aggressions Iran, Palestine, Venezuela, Cuba and other countries, as well as the rupture of relations between governments and the United States.. THE. and Israel.

We express our solidarity with the Iranian working people without this implying granting any political support to the fundamentalist regime, repressive and reactionary of the ayatollahs. There will be no just and lasting peace in the Middle East without defeating the State of Israel., to US imperialism and the governments that act as its allies. The strategic solution is through the Socialist Revolution so that the workers and socialism govern.

Anti-imperialists, anti-capitalists and internationalists

We repudiate the imperialist aggressions against Venezuela and Cuba, without politically supporting their respective regimes. All our solidarity with the struggles that in the United States. THE. who face Trump, to its warlike aggressiveness and its reactionary anti-social and anti-democratic politics. We promote struggles and the general strike to confront the social consequences of the war on the working class around the world., expressed in increases in fuel prices, energy, food and other items to the detriment of salary. Definitely, To confront the powerful, unitary mobilization beyond borders is needed and progress is made in the international regrouping of revolutionaries., tasks carried out daily by the LIS.

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